Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -225 UVU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -5.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -5.3 (-19.3) | 157.9 (-5.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -4.2 (-18.2) | 157.7 (-5.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -5.3 (-19.3) | 157.9 (-5.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -5.7 (-19.7) | 159.9 (-7.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#52) | 7.7 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#63) | 1.56 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#61) | 1.98 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#58) | 0.571 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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