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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northern Kentucky
@
Houston
|
+16.2 | 123.6 | 88% | 52–63 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Tennessee
|
+11.0 | 134.6 | 81% | 55–58 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
UCLA
|
+15.6 | 138.5 | 87% | 53–86 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Texas A&M
|
+1.9 | 139.4 | 58% | 76–59 | ✗ |
USC
@
Michigan State
|
+0.0 | 141.3 | 50% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Xavier
|
+9.1 | 151.0 | 79% | 67–72 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Baylor
|
+7.9 | 144.5 | 78% | 56–74 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Saint Mary's
|
+3.6 | 129.0 | 63% | 51–63 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Marquette
|
+8.7 | 142.7 | 79% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Iowa State
|
+3.9 | 133.6 | 66% | 59–41 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Creighton
|
+3.9 | 148.0 | 65% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Iona
@
UConn
|
+7.0 | 144.4 | 77% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Purdue
|
+16.4 | 144.8 | 87% | 63–58 | ✗ |
Providence
@
Kentucky
|
+2.6 | 147.9 | 63% | 53–61 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Gonzaga
|
+10.1 | 154.1 | 83% | 70–82 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Miami
|
+1.3 | 146.2 | 55% | 56–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.