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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida Atlantic
@
Memphis
|
+0.2 | 150.5 | 49% | 66–65 | ✗ |
Montana State
@
Kansas State
|
+7.8 | 143.5 | 78% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
TCU
|
+2.6 | 141.7 | 61% | 70–72 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Indiana
|
+2.0 | 144.3 | 56% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
-9.5 | 146.8 | 21% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Vanderbilt
|
+2.3 | 149.6 | 60% | 65–66 | ✓ |
Furman
@
San Diego State
|
+5.8 | 141.1 | 73% | 52–75 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
North Alabama
|
-8.0 | 158.1 | 23% | 72–50 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Hofstra
|
+2.2 | 149.0 | 62% | 79–65 | ✗ |
Duke
@
Tennessee
|
+2.5 | 128.1 | 59% | 52–65 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Southern Indiana
|
-9.7 | 143.2 | 18% | 77–52 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Kansas
|
+3.4 | 142.7 | 66% | 72–71 | ✗ |
Charlotte
@
Western Carolina
|
-7.0 | 134.9 | 25% | 65–56 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Missouri
|
+4.3 | 147.8 | 66% | 78–63 | ✗ |
Auburn
@
Houston
|
+7.8 | 129.7 | 78% | 64–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.