Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | HOF -105 CIN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +14 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | HOF -0.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -2.7 (-16.7) | 148.9 (-4.9) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -1.2 (-15.2) | 147.7 (-3.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -2.2 (-16.2) | 149.0 (-5.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -2.4 (-16.4) | 148.9 (-4.9) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 16-3 |
| Away | 11-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#87) | 9.9 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#69) | 1.22 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#83) | 1.56 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#30) | 0.540 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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