Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -165 MICH +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -0.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -2.2 (-1.2) | 150.0 (-19.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -1.3 (-0.3) | 148.2 (-17.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -2.3 (-1.3) | 149.6 (-18.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -2.2 (-1.2) | 150.9 (-19.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#84) | 10.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#47) | 1.48 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#58) | 2.26 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#38) | 0.547 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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