Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +500 INST -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +5 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -11.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -9.1 (+4.1) | 145.4 (-16.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -9.2 (+4.2) | 144.7 (-15.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -9.5 (+4.5) | 146.8 (-17.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -8.7 (+3.7) | 147.6 (-18.6) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#260) | 6.2 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#224) | 0.36 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#237) | 0.46 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#216) | 0.514 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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