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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penn State
@
Texas
|
+6.0 | 141.0 | 73% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
UCLA
|
+7.8 | 129.1 | 78% | 63–68 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Alabama
|
+8.3 | 140.7 | 79% | 51–73 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+0.3 | 144.4 | 51% | 75–91 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Wisconsin
|
+2.9 | 130.6 | 60% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Xavier
|
+4.2 | 149.5 | 69% | 73–84 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Rice
|
-4.5 | 153.3 | 32% | 78–84 | ✗ |
Eastern Washington
@
Oklahoma State
|
+10.2 | 142.5 | 83% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Kansas State
|
-0.1 | 144.7 | 50% | 69–75 | ✗ |
Morehead State
@
UAB
|
+15.1 | 144.3 | 88% | 59–77 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Radford
|
-1.0 | 135.0 | 48% | 70–72 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
North Texas
|
+4.7 | 120.4 | 69% | 55–75 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Marquette
|
+3.9 | 145.3 | 67% | 69–60 | ✗ |
Saint Mary's
@
UConn
|
+3.6 | 129.5 | 63% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Milwaukee
|
-2.5 | 157.8 | 41% | 83–87 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Baylor
|
-0.9 | 146.6 | 47% | 85–76 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Oregon
|
+5.4 | 137.1 | 71% | 54–68 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.