Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | RAD +120 TAR -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -0.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -1.1 (+3.1) | 134.5 (+7.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -0.4 (+2.4) | 128.6 (+13.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -1.0 (+3.0) | 135.0 (+7.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -0.5 (+2.5) | 134.4 (+7.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#171) | 0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#204) | 0.28 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#205) | 0.37 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#159) | 0.513 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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