Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | RICE +210 DUQ -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICE +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -5.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -4.5 (+10.5) | 153.1 (+8.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -3.7 (+9.7) | 150.6 (+11.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -4.5 (+10.5) | 153.3 (+8.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -4.5 (+10.5) | 152.5 (+9.5) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 16-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#216) | 2.8 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#146) | 0.51 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#166) | 0.59 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#184) | 0.529 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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