Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | EKU -110 CLE +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +16 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -0.4 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -0.0 (+16.0) | 146.0 (+20.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -0.2 (+16.2) | 144.5 (+21.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -0.3 (+15.7) | 144.4 (+21.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -0.1 (+15.9) | 145.3 (+20.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#183) | -0.3 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#128) | 0.04 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#152) | 0.03 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#108) | 0.508 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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