Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | WIS -205 LIB +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -2.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -2.8 (+1.2) | 131.2 (+14.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -3.7 (+0.3) | 131.9 (+14.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -2.9 (+1.1) | 130.6 (+15.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -3.3 (+0.7) | 131.7 (+14.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 19-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#76) | 9.1 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#57) | 1.51 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#53) | 1.80 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#82) | 0.589 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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