Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | ORE -130 UCF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +14 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -4.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -5.3 (+8.7) | 135.1 (-13.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -4.6 (+9.4) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -5.4 (+8.6) | 137.1 (-15.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -5.2 (+8.8) | 136.9 (-14.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#38) | 9.6 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#69) | 1.00 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#68) | 1.49 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#69) | 0.536 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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