Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | USI +350 SJSU -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +25 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -9.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -9.7 (-15.3) | 141.7 (-12.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -6.7 (-18.3) | 140.2 (-11.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -9.7 (-15.3) | 143.2 (-14.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -9.2 (-15.8) | 144.6 (-15.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#259) | 4.3 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#268) | 1.28 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#269) | 1.43 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#268) | 0.543 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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