Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | UNA +400 SUU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +22 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -9.6 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-38.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -8.1 (-13.9) | 157.5 (-35.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -7.4 (-14.6) | 153.4 (-31.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -8.0 (-14.0) | 158.1 (-36.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -7.7 (-14.3) | 156.3 (-34.3) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#264) | 4.0 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | 0.89 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#190) | 0.86 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#166) | 0.541 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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