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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–5 on winners spread MAE 15.3 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Quinnipiac @ Stonehill -2.1 141.4 38% 102–95 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Eastern Kentucky — — — 66–60 —
Presbyterian @ The Citadel — — — 58–70 —
UMass Lowell @ Columbia — — — 89–62 —
Towson @ Massachusetts +15.5 145.5 86% 67–55 ✗
Colgate @ Brown +2.3 150.2 61% 77–68 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Rutgers +10.3 139.2 75% 50–88 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Penn State +12.0 145.8 82% 65–90 ✓
Western Carolina @ Maryland +13.5 133.5 84% 51–71 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Stephen F. Austin — — — 71–86 —
North Dakota State @ Kansas +15.4 143.7 86% 59–82 ✓
Texas Southern @ Texas Tech +13.3 143.8 84% 54–78 ✓
North Alabama @ Alabama A&M — — — 84–76 —
Illinois State @ Eastern Illinois +3.8 141.9 65% 54–49 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Oklahoma State +5.5 146.7 67% 61–60 ✗
Cleveland State @ Cincinnati — — — 58–69 —
Central Michigan @ Marquette — — — 73–97 —
Omaha @ Nebraska +14.3 144.7 85% 61–75 ✓
Radford @ Notre Dame — — — 76–79 —
Bethune-Cookman @ Indiana +20.0 145.8 89% 49–101 ✓
North Dakota @ Creighton +6.2 139.4 55% 61–96 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas +11.0 139.7 80% 31–82 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State +7.3 134.1 73% 68–84 ✓
Nicholls @ Wyoming — — — 68–79 —
Cal Poly @ San Francisco — — — 48–60 —
Georgia Southern @ Santa Clara +10.7 140.4 81% 62–78 ✓
UC Riverside @ Loyola Marymount — — — 81–79 —
Vermont @ Saint Mary's +7.1 146.8 72% 53–79 ✓
Alabama State @ USC +4.1 146.3 66% 58–96 ✓
Fairfield @ New Hampshire — — — 71–83 —
Detroit Mercy @ Boston College — — — 66–70 —
Fresno State @ UC Santa Barbara — — — 54–61 —
Delaware @ Air Force — — — 71–75 —
UAB @ Toledo -4.0 153.6 32% 85–93 ✗
Houston @ Saint Joseph's — — — 81–55 —
Howard @ George Washington — — — 75–85 —
Louisiana @ Harvard — — — 75–61 —
Boston University @ UConn +15.3 144.7 86% 57–86 ✓
Michigan State @ Gonzaga +3.5 146.9 66% 63–64 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Duke — — — 38–84 —

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.