Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +16 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -12.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -7.3 (+8.7) | 134.1 (+17.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -9.4 (+6.6) | 133.9 (+18.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | ASU 73 – 48 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#222) | -1.0 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#70) | -0.36 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#133) | -0.52 (#209) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 31.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 54.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.48 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.7% | 38.3% |
| TOV% | 27.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 9.2% |
Game Analysis
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