Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -400 UVM +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -12.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -7.8 (+18.2) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.1 (+18.9) | 146.8 (-14.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-2 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#194) | -0.0 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#46) | 0.36 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#115) | 0.51 (#90) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 53.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 43.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 63.5% |
| TOV% | 7.2% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 83.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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