Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -700 MSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +1 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -7.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 74.6 (+52.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -3.5 (-2.5) | 146.9 (-19.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.6 (-2.6) | 141.4 (-14.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 11-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#14) | 1.0 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#93) | 0.36 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#34) | 0.52 (#79) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 64.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 9.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 38.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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