Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MD -2000 WCU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +20 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MD -16.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -17.7 (+2.3) | 133.8 (-11.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -13.5 (+6.5) | 133.5 (-11.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#96) | 0.7 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#102) | -0.36 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#68) | -0.50 (#193) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 45.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 42.3% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 29.1% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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