Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -2000 L-MD +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +25 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -15.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -15.9 (+9.1) | 145.5 (+9.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -12.0 (+13.0) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#82) | 3.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#113) | -0.36 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#61) | -0.44 (#166) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.0% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 47.4% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.18 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 70.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 89.3% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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