Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -3300 BU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +29 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -22.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -16.5 (+12.5) | 140.2 (+2.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -15.3 (+13.7) | 144.7 (-1.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#49) | -2.0 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#57) | 0.36 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#50) | 0.48 (#112) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 20.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 47.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.2% | 24.2% |
| DRB% | 84.4% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.8% | 40.8% |
Game Analysis
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