Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | TOL +188 UAB -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -8.7 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 88.2 (+89.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -4.1 (+12.1) | 151.5 (+26.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -4.0 (+12.0) | 153.6 (+24.4) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-1 | 17-2 |
| Away | 10-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#147) | 8.6 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#122) | 0.36 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#89) | 0.58 (#35) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 51.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 60.2% |
| TOV% | 10.9% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 53.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 37.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 81.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 6.6% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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