Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | USC -4000 ALST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +38 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | USC -14.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -4.1 (+33.9) | 146.3 (+7.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -3.5 (+34.5) | 143.9 (+10.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | USC 79 – 59 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#275) | -8.6 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.36 (#285) | -0.36 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.50 (#286) | -0.58 (#250) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 31.6% |
| 3PT% | 15.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 60.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 53.1% |
Game Analysis
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