You have to let that raga drop. "Rock the Casbah" - The Clash
Dunn-Oliver Acadome · December 20, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread USC -18.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money ALST +1200 / USC -5000
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALST win
Actual USC +20 138 Lost
Massey USC -8.1 (-11.9) — —
Massey Totals — 151.1 (-13.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 60% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 56% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ USC -8.4 (-11.6) 149.9 (-11.9) 23% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML USC -4.5 (-15.5) 147.8 (-9.8) 34% ✓
Baseline ML USC -5.4 (-14.6) 148.8 (-10.8) 29% ✓
Baseline Plus ML USC -5.6 (-14.4) 150.5 (-12.5) 29% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 11, 2022 USC 96 – 58 ALST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALST USC
Overall 13-19 15-18
Conference 8-10 8-12
Home 7-5 9-6
Away 3-13 3-9
Neutral 3-1 3-3
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.1 74.1
Avg Pts Against 70.9 74.3
Massey -6.1 (#283) 6.5 (#78)
Bradley-Terry -0.01 (#182) 0.51 (#135)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.03 (#178) 0.88 (#121)
RPI 0.519 (#152) 0.522 (#146)
Shooting & Four Factors ALST USC
FG% 35.8% 45.3%
3PT% 31.7% 34.6%
REB / G 40.4 37.4
OREB / G 14.4 11.5
AST / TO 0.90 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.3% 52.1%
TOV% 16.1% 19.2%
ORB% 31.7% 32.2%
FT Rate 19.7% 30.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 17.1% 18.1%
DRB% 68.7% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 29.4% 21.3%

Game Analysis

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