Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +1200 USC -5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +20 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -8.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -8.4 (-11.6) | 149.9 (-11.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -4.5 (-15.5) | 147.8 (-9.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.4 (-14.6) | 148.8 (-10.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.6 (-14.4) | 150.5 (-12.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2022 | USC 96 – 58 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#283) | 6.5 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#182) | 0.51 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#178) | 0.88 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#152) | 0.522 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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