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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–10 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bradley
@
Illinois State
|
-0.7 | 152.4 | 49% | 65–74 | ✗ |
Purdue
@
Illinois
|
+2.7 | 154.1 | 64% | 96–88 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Tennessee State
|
-1.7 | 147.4 | 42% | 64–80 | ✗ |
George Mason
@
George Washington
|
-7.7 | 137.2 | 21% | 76–77 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Howard
|
-1.8 | 146.5 | 36% | 71–68 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
-2.8 | 139.4 | 36% | 80–65 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Merrimack
|
+1.1 | 124.9 | 57% | 57–50 | ✗ |
Utah
@
Arizona State
|
+0.8 | 137.1 | 57% | 62–64 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+1.3 | 142.1 | 52% | 67–96 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
Stony Brook
|
+1.9 | 149.7 | 61% | 51–65 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Maryland Eastern Shore
|
+1.0 | 135.3 | 59% | 72–58 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Princeton
|
+6.2 | 152.6 | 78% | 64–74 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+10.2 | 148.1 | 86% | 75–64 | ✗ |
Drexel
@
Hofstra
|
+5.2 | 149.0 | 73% | 68–71 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Elon
|
-4.5 | 144.2 | 30% | 67–90 | ✗ |
Murray State
@
Eastern Illinois
|
-15.8 | 130.9 | 13% | 72–46 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Brown
|
+1.4 | 143.7 | 60% | 66–63 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Jackson State
|
-3.5 | 129.8 | 36% | 58–61 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Nebraska
|
-10.8 | 146.2 | 15% | 78–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.