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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–4 on winners
spread MAE 12.6
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central Michigan
@
Kentucky
|
+24.3 | 150.3 | 91% | 57–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+7.5 | 141.6 | 75% | 58–83 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Columbia
|
+4.9 | 145.4 | 69% | 73–50 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Virginia
|
-0.8 | 143.0 | 43% | 75–74 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Boston College
|
+9.0 | 126.5 | 79% | 49–64 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Canisius
|
-1.6 | 155.1 | 37% | 89–75 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Colgate
|
+6.3 | 143.0 | 72% | 70–59 | ✗ |
East Texas A&M
@
South Alabama
|
+10.3 | 134.5 | 80% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
TCU
|
+6.9 | 138.0 | 74% | 51–68 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Vanderbilt
|
+23.3 | 143.7 | 91% | 36–75 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Oral Roberts
|
+1.3 | 146.7 | 50% | 80–87 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas
|
+22.4 | 132.2 | 91% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Hampton
|
+2.2 | 141.8 | 60% | 60–47 | ✗ |
UT Arlington
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+20.7 | 138.0 | 91% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Illinois
|
+10.8 | 139.5 | 82% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Gonzaga
|
+23.8 | 139.5 | 91% | 55–64 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Oregon
|
+4.3 | 137.4 | 66% | 47–87 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
-2.0 | 135.1 | 35% | 79–66 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Loyola Marymount
|
-1.1 | 137.5 | 41% | 78–72 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Saint Mary's
|
+5.9 | 124.7 | 71% | 50–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.