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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–2 on winners
spread MAE 6.9
7 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Francis
@
Lehigh
|
+3.6 | 143.8 | 62% | 79–68 | ✗ |
Stanford
@
Colorado
|
+4.6 | 143.7 | 74% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Hampton
@
Norfolk State
|
+3.2 | 143.1 | 65% | 61–70 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
California
|
+2.0 | 131.4 | 49% | 57–65 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Morgan State
|
+1.8 | 143.9 | 59% | 74–59 | ✗ |
|
Norfolk State
@
Grambling
|
-5.5 | 142.1 | 27% | 70–63 | ✓ |
Hartford
@
App State
|
+7.0 | 139.9 | 73% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.