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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alcorn State
@
North Texas
|
+18.0 | 127.7 | 89% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.6 | 150.7 | 74% | 72–81 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Sam Houston
|
+2.4 | 137.3 | 59% | 56–58 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Arizona State
|
-1.6 | 135.6 | 48% | 73–98 | ✗ |
Utah Valley
@
New Mexico
|
+5.7 | 159.9 | 64% | 83–69 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
Oregon
|
+8.4 | 141.6 | 77% | 58–84 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Maryland
|
-1.4 | 141.0 | 43% | 65–67 | ✗ |
Furman
@
Virginia
|
+4.3 | 135.4 | 67% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
Missouri
|
-2.4 | 151.5 | 40% | 65–76 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Kansas
|
+15.6 | 142.1 | 88% | 68–96 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Alabama
|
+17.3 | 154.4 | 89% | 75–96 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
San Diego State
|
+2.4 | 138.5 | 59% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Arizona
|
+9.1 | 152.7 | 82% | 59–55 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Arkansas
|
+1.0 | 144.8 | 57% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Iowa
|
+0.1 | 153.8 | 50% | 83–75 | ✗ |
Oral Roberts
@
Duke
|
+2.3 | 144.1 | 61% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Northwestern
|
-0.4 | 130.5 | 46% | 67–75 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Texas
|
+10.6 | 147.5 | 84% | 61–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.