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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+16.5 | 124.1 | 89% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 133.2 | 83% | 55–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.9 | 135.8 | 88% | 53–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 137.3 | 54% | 76–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 142.5 | 52% | 62–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.3 | 150.0 | 81% | 67–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 145.0 | 76% | 56–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 129.4 | 61% | 51–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 142.1 | 81% | 61–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 135.0 | 56% | 59–41 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 150.3 | 66% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 144.5 | 73% | 63–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.3 | 143.8 | 87% | 63–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.3 | 149.8 | 65% | 53–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 152.8 | 83% | 70–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 144.1 | 56% | 56–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.