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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–4 on winners spread MAE 8.7 15 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +0.1 148.7 52% 66–65 ✗
Montana State @ Kansas State +6.6 142.6 75% 65–77 ✓
Arizona State @ TCU +2.8 142.0 60% 70–72 ✓
Kent State @ Indiana +1.7 145.2 56% 60–71 ✓
Indiana State @ South Carolina Upstate -8.7 147.6 20% 67–62 ✓
Michigan @ Vanderbilt +2.2 150.9 58% 65–66 ✓
Furman @ San Diego State +5.7 140.2 74% 52–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ North Alabama -7.7 156.3 24% 72–50 ✓
Cincinnati @ Hofstra +2.4 148.9 64% 79–65 ✗
Duke @ Tennessee +3.1 127.7 60% 52–65 ✓
San José State @ Southern Indiana -9.2 144.6 19% 77–52 ✓
Arkansas @ Kansas +3.8 140.4 61% 72–71 ✗
Charlotte @ Western Carolina -6.3 134.4 26% 65–56 ✓
Princeton @ Missouri +4.0 146.9 64% 78–63 ✗
Auburn @ Houston +7.6 129.4 78% 64–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.