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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–7 on winners spread MAE 9.0 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Syracuse @ North Carolina	+10.5	152.4	83%	77–87	✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State	+2.3	147.0	58%	66–79	✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross	+0.3	145.7	51%	72–64	✗
SE Louisiana @ Lamar	+7.5	132.9	75%	54–73	✓
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+11.0	142.4	84%	57–74	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	+0.1	151.9	50%	61–58	✗
McNeese @ Stephen F. Austin	+0.6	143.2	52%	60–67	✓
New Orleans @ East Texas A&M	-2.3	153.5	42%	94–85	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M	+0.0	144.3	50%	80–62	✗
Southern @ Jackson State	-5.6	158.4	31%	96–91	✓
Grambling @ Alcorn State	-5.2	146.9	32%	74–50	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State	+11.0	156.3	84%	90–85	✗
Kansas @ Texas Tech	+0.8	152.1	53%	64–61	✗
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+6.8	137.2	73%	71–69	✗
Weber State @ Sacramento State	-1.7	167.4	44%	90–104	✗
Idaho State @ Portland State	+5.7	140.4	70%	65–88	✓
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo	-4.9	170.4	33%	73–71	✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan	-10.9	156.4	16%	66–64	✓
Canisius @ Niagara	+2.5	125.3	59%	56–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.