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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alcorn State
@
North Texas
|
+17.1 | 121.3 | 94% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Cincinnati
|
+5.6 | 148.1 | 70% | 72–81 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Sam Houston
|
+2.4 | 137.6 | 59% | 56–58 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Arizona State
|
-1.5 | 137.1 | 44% | 73–98 | ✗ |
Utah Valley
@
New Mexico
|
+6.2 | 157.0 | 71% | 83–69 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
Oregon
|
+8.5 | 143.2 | 78% | 58–84 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Maryland
|
-0.3 | 141.5 | 49% | 65–67 | ✗ |
Furman
@
Virginia
|
+5.1 | 135.8 | 68% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
Missouri
|
-3.5 | 161.7 | 37% | 65–76 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Kansas
|
+19.4 | 145.8 | 96% | 68–96 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Alabama
|
+23.2 | 158.5 | 98% | 75–96 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
San Diego State
|
+5.2 | 142.5 | 68% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Arizona
|
+12.0 | 159.7 | 86% | 59–55 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Arkansas
|
+1.8 | 144.9 | 56% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Iowa
|
-1.1 | 155.1 | 46% | 83–75 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Duke
|
+3.1 | 146.1 | 61% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Northwestern
|
-1.0 | 126.0 | 46% | 67–75 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Texas
|
+13.3 | 151.5 | 89% | 61–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.