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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–5 on winners
spread MAE 11.5
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Villanova
@
Liberty
|
+4.8 | 129.4 | 67% | 57–62 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Vanderbilt
|
+0.6 | 142.5 | 52% | 62–71 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Wisconsin
|
+3.1 | 121.8 | 61% | 62–81 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Mississippi State
|
+2.2 | 130.7 | 58% | 60–59 | ✗ |
Eastern Washington
@
Washington State
|
+9.8 | 141.3 | 81% | 81–74 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Colorado
|
+4.3 | 129.9 | 65% | 64–65 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Texas Southern
|
+1.0 | 156.5 | 54% | 84–61 | ✗ |
UCF
@
Florida
|
+3.4 | 136.4 | 62% | 67–49 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
Youngstown State
|
-3.8 | 146.9 | 36% | 69–64 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Clemson
|
+16.3 | 132.3 | 93% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.