Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TXSO -138 FDU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +23 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -0.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -1.0 (-22.0) | 148.8 (-3.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -1.0 (-24.0) | 146.3 (-1.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -0.4 (-22.6) | 147.7 (-2.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -0.5 (-22.5) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-21 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#296) | -8.2 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#296) | -1.37 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#288) | -1.69 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#258) | 0.445 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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