Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -163 UCF +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +18 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -4.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -3.8 (-21.8) | 139.2 (-23.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -3.2 (-21.2) | 138.1 (-22.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.9 (-20.9) | 138.5 (-22.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -3.9 (-21.9) | 140.1 (-24.1) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#58) | 8.9 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#74) | 0.85 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#71) | 1.23 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#95) | 0.531 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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