Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -167 YALE +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -0.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -2.4 (+6.6) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -3.3 (+5.7) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -3.0 (+6.0) | 146.1 (-13.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -2.5 (+6.5) | 146.7 (-13.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-4 |
| Home | 14-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#84) | 9.5 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#52) | 0.97 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#63) | 1.36 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#41) | 0.560 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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