Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LIB -163 VILL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -4.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -3.3 (+1.7) | 135.2 (-16.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -4.0 (+1.0) | 133.2 (-14.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -3.7 (+1.3) | 135.3 (-16.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -4.3 (+0.7) | 135.8 (-16.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 19-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#60) | 8.3 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#64) | 1.11 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#68) | 1.48 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#26) | 0.521 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 79.9% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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