Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -167 BRAD +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -3.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -4.1 (+14.9) | 130.0 (+13.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -5.2 (+13.8) | 128.7 (+14.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -3.1 (+15.9) | 130.3 (+12.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -4.1 (+14.9) | 130.2 (+12.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#76) | 7.6 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#61) | 1.38 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#55) | 1.43 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#92) | 0.580 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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