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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northern Kentucky
@
Houston
|
+18.8 | 118.3 | 96% | 52–63 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Tennessee
|
+13.9 | 137.1 | 90% | 55–58 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
UCLA
|
+18.3 | 135.1 | 95% | 53–86 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Texas A&M
|
+2.3 | 140.1 | 58% | 76–59 | ✗ |
USC
@
Michigan State
|
+0.7 | 137.9 | 52% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Xavier
|
+11.4 | 155.4 | 85% | 67–72 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Baylor
|
+9.4 | 145.7 | 80% | 56–74 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Saint Mary's
|
+6.5 | 122.3 | 72% | 51–63 | ✓ |
Vermont
@
Marquette
|
+9.8 | 146.8 | 81% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Iowa State
|
+5.1 | 132.3 | 68% | 59–41 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Creighton
|
+5.1 | 149.1 | 68% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Iona
@
UConn
|
+8.5 | 143.9 | 78% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Purdue
|
+23.4 | 149.4 | 98% | 63–58 | ✗ |
Providence
@
Kentucky
|
+2.5 | 150.4 | 59% | 53–61 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Gonzaga
|
+12.7 | 156.5 | 88% | 70–82 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Miami
|
+1.3 | 150.0 | 55% | 56–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.