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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida Atlantic
@
Memphis
|
-0.8 | 152.7 | 47% | 66–65 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Kansas State
|
+9.0 | 140.0 | 79% | 65–77 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
TCU
|
+3.7 | 141.9 | 63% | 70–72 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Indiana
|
+4.2 | 141.1 | 65% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
-12.1 | 147.2 | 14% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Vanderbilt
|
+0.8 | 149.2 | 53% | 65–66 | ✓ |
Furman
@
San Diego State
|
+7.0 | 143.3 | 74% | 52–75 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
North Alabama
|
-10.0 | 163.3 | 18% | 72–50 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Hofstra
|
+1.0 | 147.1 | 53% | 79–65 | ✗ |
Duke
@
Tennessee
|
+5.0 | 124.5 | 67% | 52–65 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Southern Indiana
|
-9.3 | 142.9 | 20% | 77–52 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Kansas
|
+2.7 | 144.8 | 60% | 72–71 | ✗ |
Charlotte
@
Western Carolina
|
-6.9 | 131.9 | 26% | 65–56 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Missouri
|
+4.6 | 155.4 | 66% | 78–63 | ✗ |
Auburn
@
Houston
|
+8.8 | 128.6 | 79% | 64–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.