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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.7
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penn State
@
Texas
|
+7.0 | 145.0 | 74% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
UCLA
|
+8.4 | 124.7 | 78% | 63–68 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Alabama
|
+7.8 | 146.3 | 76% | 51–73 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
-0.1 | 142.0 | 50% | 75–91 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Wisconsin
|
+1.5 | 123.3 | 55% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Xavier
|
+4.4 | 155.5 | 65% | 73–84 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Rice
|
-5.8 | 155.7 | 30% | 78–84 | ✗ |
Eastern Washington
@
Oklahoma State
|
+11.2 | 141.6 | 84% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Kansas State
|
+0.1 | 147.0 | 50% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
UAB
|
+17.6 | 142.7 | 94% | 59–77 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Radford
|
-0.2 | 130.6 | 49% | 70–72 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
North Texas
|
+4.2 | 109.6 | 65% | 55–75 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Marquette
|
+2.8 | 144.4 | 60% | 69–60 | ✗ |
Saint Mary's
@
UConn
|
+1.9 | 128.0 | 57% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Milwaukee
|
-3.0 | 158.7 | 39% | 83–87 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Baylor
|
-0.2 | 148.9 | 49% | 85–76 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Oregon
|
+4.0 | 135.8 | 64% | 54–68 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.