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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alcorn State
@
North Texas
|
+17.0 | 124.4 | 88% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Cincinnati
|
+5.5 | 147.3 | 71% | 72–81 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Sam Houston
|
+1.3 | 133.7 | 57% | 56–58 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Arizona State
|
-1.3 | 135.0 | 47% | 73–98 | ✗ |
Utah Valley
@
New Mexico
|
+4.2 | 157.7 | 65% | 83–69 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
Oregon
|
+8.2 | 140.2 | 77% | 58–84 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Maryland
|
-0.7 | 137.7 | 45% | 65–67 | ✗ |
Furman
@
Virginia
|
+3.8 | 131.5 | 63% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
Missouri
|
-2.6 | 150.9 | 43% | 65–76 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Kansas
|
+15.7 | 142.4 | 87% | 68–96 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Alabama
|
+16.3 | 159.1 | 86% | 75–96 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
San Diego State
|
+3.0 | 137.6 | 62% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Arizona
|
+9.2 | 152.1 | 83% | 59–55 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Arkansas
|
+0.8 | 144.7 | 52% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Iowa
|
+0.2 | 151.4 | 52% | 83–75 | ✗ |
Oral Roberts
@
Duke
|
+4.3 | 142.6 | 68% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Northwestern
|
+0.4 | 128.0 | 47% | 67–75 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Texas
|
+11.8 | 144.1 | 84% | 61–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.