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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.9
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central Michigan
@
Kentucky
|
+26.4 | 150.2 | 91% | 57–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Gardner-Webb
|
+8.2 | 142.7 | 79% | 58–83 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Columbia
|
+4.1 | 143.4 | 66% | 73–50 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Virginia
|
-2.4 | 137.9 | 39% | 75–74 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Boston College
|
+9.3 | 123.8 | 79% | 49–64 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Canisius
|
-3.8 | 157.1 | 36% | 89–75 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Colgate
|
+9.1 | 141.7 | 80% | 70–59 | ✗ |
East Texas A&M
@
South Alabama
|
— | — | — | 66–69 | — |
Austin Peay
@
TCU
|
+8.9 | 136.7 | 83% | 51–68 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Vanderbilt
|
+25.6 | 142.5 | 91% | 36–75 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Oral Roberts
|
+2.3 | 151.1 | 54% | 80–87 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas
|
+18.8 | 128.1 | 90% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Hampton
|
-0.5 | 139.2 | 48% | 60–47 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+22.8 | 137.3 | 90% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Illinois
|
+9.7 | 135.9 | 83% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Gonzaga
|
+27.3 | 137.0 | 91% | 55–64 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Oregon
|
+9.1 | 132.0 | 79% | 47–87 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
-3.9 | 134.0 | 34% | 79–66 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Loyola Marymount
|
-3.6 | 131.1 | 32% | 78–72 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Saint Mary's
|
+6.5 | 122.5 | 72% | 50–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.