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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grambling
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-7.0 | 144.0 | 22% | 81–77 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Boston University
|
+1.3 | 132.3 | 58% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
SE Louisiana
|
+7.0 | 137.9 | 77% | 70–62 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+2.1 | 146.4 | 60% | 82–75 | ✗ |
South Alabama
@
UL Monroe
|
-11.6 | 131.0 | 14% | 66–77 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Jackson State
|
+6.5 | 146.2 | 77% | 72–62 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Ohio State
|
+7.5 | 158.0 | 77% | 65–82 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-4.2 | 141.9 | 33% | 74–73 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Lamar
|
+2.7 | 130.9 | 62% | 59–69 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
New Orleans
|
-1.2 | 147.8 | 44% | 74–58 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Duke
|
+18.4 | 135.8 | 91% | 64–74 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+6.2 | 129.1 | 71% | 72–79 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Alabama State
|
+3.1 | 145.4 | 63% | 80–69 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-15.9 | 130.3 | 12% | 63–42 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Alabama A&M
|
-2.2 | 151.3 | 38% | 82–98 | ✗ |
Towson
@
Northeastern
|
+1.6 | 135.7 | 58% | 75–65 | ✗ |
UCLA
@
USC
|
-1.5 | 141.1 | 48% | 82–76 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Arizona
|
+1.5 | 153.7 | 53% | 75–86 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Georgetown
|
-5.5 | 135.7 | 29% | 66–41 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.