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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charleston
@
Alabama
|
+8.3 | 169.8 | 78% | 96–109 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Houston
|
+18.6 | 129.3 | 88% | 46–86 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Wisconsin
|
+3.9 | 148.5 | 59% | 72–61 | ✗ |
TCU
@
Utah State
|
-0.7 | 153.1 | 50% | 72–88 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Saint Mary's
|
+3.0 | 131.5 | 62% | 75–66 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
Seton Hall
|
+4.2 | 136.2 | 66% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Arizona
|
+7.3 | 147.7 | 76% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-8.7 | 144.8 | 20% | 86–85 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.9 | 139.9 | 73% | 57–74 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Chicago State
|
-9.9 | 140.3 | 20% | 75–77 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
Kansas
|
-2.4 | 146.4 | 38% | 89–68 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Norfolk State
|
+8.9 | 139.7 | 82% | 66–81 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
North Carolina
|
+3.1 | 138.0 | 65% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Delaware State
|
-8.8 | 135.1 | 19% | 79–66 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Iowa State
|
+6.9 | 128.5 | 75% | 56–67 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Ohio State
|
+6.9 | 146.4 | 74% | 73–81 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
NC State
|
+4.8 | 144.9 | 70% | 73–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.