Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | CHST +400 UCSD -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -11.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -8.1 (+10.1) | 136.6 (+15.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -9.9 (+11.9) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -9.2 (+11.2) | 139.3 (+12.7) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -10.8 (+12.8) | 136.8 (+15.2) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 15-5 |
| Home | 6-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#298) | 3.3 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#286) | 0.43 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#305) | 0.53 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#280) | 0.516 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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