Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Ocean Center (Neutral) · March 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCSD -10.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money CHST +400 / UCSD -600
Model Predictions
Spread Total CHST win
Actual CHST +2 152 Won
Massey UCSD -11.0 (+13.0)
Massey Totals 133.7 (+18.3)
Bradley-Terry 18%
Weighted B-T 9%
Efficiency Plus ML UCSD -8.1 (+10.1) 136.6 (+15.4) 23%
Baseline Tuned ML UCSD -9.9 (+11.9) 140.3 (+11.7) 20%
Baseline ML UCSD -9.2 (+11.2) 139.3 (+12.7) 24%
Baseline Plus ML UCSD -10.8 (+12.8) 136.8 (+15.2) 22%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CHST UCSD
Overall 13-19 21-12
Conference 0-0 15-5
Home 6-5 14-2
Away 5-12 7-7
Neutral 2-2 0-3
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.2 74.7
Avg Pts Against 71.6 69.9
Massey -7.7 (#298) 3.3 (#118)
Bradley-Terry -1.10 (#286) 0.43 (#133)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.75 (#305) 0.53 (#130)
RPI 0.449 (#280) 0.516 (#137)
Shooting & Four Factors CHST UCSD
FG% 40.6% 44.8%
3PT% 29.9% 34.5%
REB / G 31.2 34.1
OREB / G 11.2 9.5
AST / TO 0.71 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 52.1%
TOV% 20.4% 14.3%
ORB% 31.9% 27.5%
FT Rate 27.2% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.0% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 21.5% 17.0%
DRB% 64.4% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 25.2% 21.1%

Game Analysis

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