Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -500 AAMU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -10.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.8 (+5.2) | 137.6 (+9.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -8.9 (+6.1) | 139.7 (+7.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -10.1 (+4.9) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -10.2 (+4.8) | 137.3 (+9.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2022 | NORF 89 – 83 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#240) | -11.4 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#206) | -1.34 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#214) | -1.78 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#166) | 0.445 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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