Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -300 BRAD +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -6.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -6.4 (+10.6) | 139.0 (-8.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -6.9 (+10.1) | 139.9 (-8.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -7.0 (+10.0) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -7.0 (+10.0) | 140.7 (-9.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#30) | 9.4 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#66) | 1.38 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#58) | 1.65 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#74) | 0.588 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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