Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | OSU -250 VT +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -4.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -5.4 (+2.6) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -6.9 (+1.1) | 146.4 (+7.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -6.7 (+1.3) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -6.3 (+1.7) | 146.7 (+7.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#46) | 9.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#55) | 1.55 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#52) | 1.99 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#66) | 0.558 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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