Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | BCU +550 ARST -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +1 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -10.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -7.3 (+6.3) | 144.9 (+26.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARST -8.1 (+7.1) | 143.9 (+27.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML | ARST -6.8 (+5.8) | 146.8 (+24.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.0 (+7.0) | 146.2 (+24.8) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#315) | 1.4 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#270) | 0.16 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#279) | 0.35 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#279) | 0.510 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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